Climate-Driven Shifts in Dietary Diversity: A Global Study

Climate affects food consumption both directly and indirectly through its effects on agricultural productivity and food prices. While the indirect pathways have received attention, the direct effects of climate on dietary intake remain poorly understood. This study examines how climate variables shape dietary intake across six major food groups: cereals, meat, seafood, dairy and eggs, fruits, and vegetables. We combine country-level food intake data from 185 countries with food prices, climate variables, and demographic controls for 2010 and 2018. To address endogeneity in food prices, we use neighboring-country food prices as instruments. The results show clear differences across food groups. Higher temperature and precipitation are positively associated with cereal and seafood intake, but negatively associated with meat, dairy, and eggs. Projections for 2050 show that food intake may increase most in low and lower-middle-income countries. These results highlight the need to include demand-side responses in climate and food policy.