IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/aaea26/404575.html

Does Anticipatory Cash Transfers Help? Quasi-Experimental Evidence from Somalia

Author

Listed:
  • Niazi, Kamran
  • Poudel, Dixit
  • Burrone, Sara
  • Bologna, Giulio
  • Lombardi, Niccolo
  • Scognamillo, Antonio

Abstract

Anticipatory cash transfers, i.e. disbursed before climate shocks materialise rather than after, are expanding rapidly across fragile settings, yet rigorous evidence on their effectiveness in slow-onset drought contexts remains scarce. This study provides one of the first quasi-experimental evaluations of Early Warning-based Anticipatory Cash Transfers (EWACT) targeting a slow-onset drought in a fragile, conflict-affected setting, using three rounds of panel data from 1,635 households in Baidoa district, Somalia (2024–2025) and a difference-in-differences design with inverse probability weighting. Results show that treated households significantly increased savings and crop reserves and improved debt repayment capacity, the intermediary outcomes of the asset-protection, savings, and debt-management pathways, which translated into a 33 percentage-point improvement in food consumption scores and a 7 percentage-point reduction in crop losses at midline. No significant effects on livestock mortality were detected. Effects on mobility and displacement, reveal a reduction in both, with mobility effect that deepens from 5 to 12 percentage points between midline and endline, even as food security gains dissipate. An instrumental variable extension shows that food security benefits are front-loaded and fade with elapsed time since transfer, while financial stock outcomes persist across seasons. This temporal asymmetry, transient food security improvements alongside a strengthening and durable reduction in mobility, is the paper's central empirical contribution, with implications for the design, sequencing, and cost-effectiveness of anticipatory action in fragile, drought-prone contexts.

Suggested Citation

  • Niazi, Kamran & Poudel, Dixit & Burrone, Sara & Bologna, Giulio & Lombardi, Niccolo & Scognamillo, Antonio, 2026. "Does Anticipatory Cash Transfers Help? Quasi-Experimental Evidence from Somalia," 2026 Annual Meeting, July 26 - 28, 2026, Kansas City, Missouri 404575, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea26:404575
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.404575
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/404575/files/177574_199100_115232_Does_Anticipatory_Cash_Transfers_Help_AAEA2026.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.404575?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tommaso Crosta & Dean Karlan & Finley Ong & Julius Rüschenpöhler & Christopher R. Udry, 2024. "Unconditional Cash Transfers: A Bayesian Meta-Analysis of Randomized Evaluations in Low and Middle Income Countries," NBER Working Papers 32779, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Shilpa Aggarwal & Jenny C. Aker & Dahyeon Jeong & Naresh Kumar & David Sungho Park & Jonathan Robinson & Alan Spearot, 2026. "The Dynamic Effects of Cash Transfers to Agricultural Households," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 18(3), pages 254-282, July.
    3. Jonathan Morduch, 1995. "Income Smoothing and Consumption Smoothing," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 103-114, Summer.
    4. Michael Carter & Christopher Barrett, 2006. "The economics of poverty traps and persistent poverty: An asset-based approach," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(2), pages 178-199.
    5. Mogge, Lukas & Roeckert, Julian & Krähnert, Kati, 2024. "Impacts of anticipatory cash transfers in the context of weather disasters," Ruhr Economic Papers 1065, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    6. Barrett, Christopher B. & Swallow, Brent M., 2006. "Fractal poverty traps," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 1-15, January.
    7. Sidhya Balakrishnan & Roberta Costa & Johannes Haushofer & Fábio Waltenberg, 2024. "Welfare Effects of a Permanent Unconditional Cash Transfer Program: Evidence from Maricá, Brazil," NBER Working Papers 33089, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Ashley Pople & Ruth Hill & Stefan Dercon & Ben Brunckhorst, 2021. "Anticipatory Cash Transfers in Climate Disaster Response," CSAE Working Paper Series 2021-07, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    9. Özler, Berk & Çelik, Çiğdem & Cunningham, Scott & Cuevas, P. Facundo & Parisotto, Luca, 2021. "Children on the move: Progressive redistribution of humanitarian cash transfers among refugees," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    10. Travis J. Lybbert & Christopher B. Barrett & Solomon Desta & D. Layne Coppock, 2004. "Stochastic wealth dynamics and risk management among a poor population," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(498), pages 750-777, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Barnett, Barry J. & Barrett, Christopher B. & Skees, Jerry R., 2008. "Poverty Traps and Index-Based Risk Transfer Products," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 1766-1785, October.
    2. Barrett, Christopher B. & Schofield, Heather, 2026. "On risk-based poverty traps," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 201(C).
    3. Jensen, Nathaniel D. & Barrett, Christopher B. & Mude, Andrew G., 2017. "Cash transfers and index insurance: A comparative impact analysis from northern Kenya," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 14-28.
    4. Jensen, Nathaniel & Barrett, Christopher B. & Mude, Andrew, 2014. "Index Insurance and Cash Transfers: A Comparative Analysis from Northern Kenya," MPRA Paper 61372, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Barrientos, Armando, 2012. "Social Transfers and Growth: What Do We Know? What Do We Need to Find Out?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 11-20.
    6. Swati Dutta, 2021. "Structural and stochastic transitions of poverty using household panel data in India," Poverty & Public Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 13(1), pages 8-31, March.
    7. Janz, Teresa & Augsburg, Britta & Gassmann, Franziska & Nimeh, Zina, 2023. "Leaving no one behind: Urban poverty traps in Sub-Saharan Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    8. Santos, Paulo & Barrett, Christopher B., 2011. "Persistent poverty and informal credit," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 337-347, November.
    9. Radosavljevic, Sonja & Haider, L. Jamila & Lade, Steven J. & Schlüter, Maja, 2021. "Implications of poverty traps across levels," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    10. Anderson, Bret, 2012. "Converting Asset Holdings into Livelihood: An Empirical Study on the Role of Household Agency in South Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(7), pages 1394-1406.
    11. Ahmed, Akhter U. & Hill, Ruth Vargas & Smith, Lisa C. & Wiesmann, Doris M. & Frankenberger, Tim, 2007. "The World's Most Deprived: Characteristics and Causes of Extreme Poverty and Hunger," 2020 Discussion Papers 42252, CGIAR, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    12. Sommarat Chantarat & Andrew G. Mude & Christopher B. Barrett & Michael R. Carter, 2013. "Designing Index-Based Livestock Insurance for Managing Asset Risk in Northern Kenya," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 80(1), pages 205-237, March.
    13. Letta, Marco & Montalbano, Pierluigi & Tol, Richard S.J., 2018. "Temperature shocks, short-term growth and poverty thresholds: Evidence from rural Tanzania," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 13-32.
    14. Berloffa, Gabriella & Modena, Francesca, 2013. "Income shocks, coping strategies, and consumption smoothing: An application to Indonesian data," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 158-171.
    15. Janzen, Sarah A. & Carter, Michael R. & Ikegami, Munenobu, 2012. "Valuing Asset Insurance in the Presence of Poverty Traps: A Dynamic Approach," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124805, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    16. Takahashi, Kazushi & Ikegami, Munenobu & Sheahan, Megan & Barrett, Christopher B., 2014. "Quasi-experimental evidence on the drivers of index-based livestock insurance demand in Southern Ethiopia," IDE Discussion Papers 480, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    17. Takahashi, Kazushi & Ikegami, Munenobu & Sheahan, Megan & Barrett, Christopher B., 2016. "Experimental Evidence on the Drivers of Index-Based Livestock Insurance Demand in Southern Ethiopia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 324-340.
    18. Dylan Fitz & Shyam Gouri Suresh, 2021. "Poverty traps across levels of aggregation," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 16(4), pages 909-953, October.
    19. Johnson, Nancy L. & Kovarik, Chiara & Meinzen-Dick, Ruth & Njuki, Jemimah & Quisumbing, Agnes, 2016. "Gender, Assets, and Agricultural Development: Lessons from Eight Projects," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 295-311.
    20. Mertens, K. & Vranken, L., 2018. "Investing in land to change your risk exposure? Land transactions in a landslide prone region," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 277235, International Association of Agricultural Economists.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:aaea26:404575. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aaeaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.