How Would Changes to Community Eligibility Provision Thresholds Affect Child Diet Quality?

This study models the impact of adjusting Community Eligibility Provision (CEP) eligibility thresholds on child diet quality across the United States. CEP enables qualified educational institutions and districts to offer complimentary breakfast and lunch to all students, with eligibility criteria assessed via the Identified Student Percentage (ISP), a metric indicating categorical eligibility through programs such as SNAP and TANF. Historically, schools have generally required an ISP of at least 40% to qualify for CEP; however, in 2023, the USDA reduced this minimum threshold to 25%, thereby expanding the population of schools eligible to offer universal free school meals. We compile a school-level administrative panel that details CEP eligibility and participation from academic years 2014-2015 through 2018-2019 and associate these records with school characteristics obtained from the National Center for Education Statistics. To translate changes in CEP eligibility into predicted diet quality, we utilize data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey’s dietary recall records spanning 2013 to 2018. An individual fixed-effects model is employed to estimate children’s Healthy Eating Index scores, considering the proportion of daily caloric intake derived from school food and away-from-home food, with home food serving as the baseline category. We subsequently simulate modifications in school food consumption under various CEP threshold scenarios and forecast the corresponding alterations in diet quality. The analysis recognizes the schools and student populations most affected by threshold adjustments and offers policy-relevant insights into how expanding or limiting universal free school meal access could influence child nutrition.