How Huanglongbing Disease Reshapes the Consumption of U.S. Orange Juice

Huanglongbing (HLB, or citrus greening) has devastated Florida’s orange groves since its detection in 2005, reducing Florida orange production by more than 95% by 2024 and cutting U.S. per-capita orange juice (OJ) availability by 60% over two decades. This paper provides the first structural analysis of how HLB propagates through a branded, differentiatedproduct supply chain to reach final consumers. We use Nielsen Retail Scanner data and Consumer Panel data, combined with an HLB severity index. The demand model follows the Berry–Levinsohn–Pakes (BLP) random-coefficients logit framework, allowing the HLB severity index to shift the perceived quality of domestic OJ products relative to imported alternatives within the same market and period. A multi-product Bertrand–Nash supply model traces how the disease raises domestic processing costs and how frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) imports partially buffer the price shock. A household-level two-part model further separates extensive-margin category exit from intensive-margin reduction and tests for persistent demand destruction through a discrete-time hazard analysis. Counterfactual simulations decompose the total OJ consumption decline into a price channel, a non-price quality channel, a healthpreference trend, and an import-buffer offset. The results are expected to show that HLB-related price and quality effects together explain the majority of the consumption decline, that imports provide only partial relief, that NFC products bear a disproportionate quality loss, and that a share of household category exit is permanent.