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Did the Green Brazil Operations Reduce Wildfires in the Legal Amazon? Evidence from a Municipal Panel Difference-in-Differences Analysis

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  • Souza Bezerra, Bruno Felipe Lenin

Abstract

The Legal Amazon, a critical biome for global climate stability, has experienced a significant increase in wildfires, driven by both natural and human factors. In response, the Brazilian government launched the Green Brazil Operations (1 and 2) to combat illegal deforestation and wildfires. This study evaluates the effectiveness of these operations in reducing wildfire occurrences using a Difference-in-Differences (DiD) methodology on a monthly panel dataset spanning 2017–2023. Results indicate that neither operation significantly reduced fire outbreaks. Additionally, contrary to policy objectives, the number of environmental fines decreased during the operational periods. These findings highlight the limitations of the Green Brazil Operations in addressing the root causes of wildfires and underscore the need for more comprehensive, integrated strategies that align enforcement with socio-economic realities in the region.

Suggested Citation

  • Souza Bezerra, Bruno Felipe Lenin, 2026. "Did the Green Brazil Operations Reduce Wildfires in the Legal Amazon? Evidence from a Municipal Panel Difference-in-Differences Analysis," 2026 Annual Meeting, July 26 - 28, 2026, Kansas City, Missouri 404476, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea26:404476
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.404476
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Meyer, Bruce D, 1995. "Natural and Quasi-experiments in Economics," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(2), pages 151-161, April.
    2. Luca Eufemia & Ana Paula Dias Turetta & Michelle Bonatti & Emmanuel Da Ponte & Stefan Sieber, 2022. "Fires in the Amazon Region: Quick Policy Review," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 40(5), September.
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