Emission leakages through trade-induced land use changes may undermine the emission mitigation effectiveness of dietary shifting and afforestation policy in China

Shifting to healthier diets and afforestation can reduce greenhouse gas emissions and enhance carbon sequestration. However, when implemented unilaterally by China, these measures may support domestic carbon neutrality while triggering emission leakages through trade-induced land-use changes. Using an integrated environmental- economic model, we found that China’s proposed dietary shift towards lower meat and higher dairy consumption may induce 14 Mha of additional agricultural land use abroad and cause 364 Tg CO₂-eq of emission leakage, almost four times the domestic mitigation. Similarly, China’s afforestation policy may displace food production abroad, resulting in 16 Mha of additional agricultural land use and 424 Tg CO₂-eq of emission leakage, exceeding its domestic mitigation. Such leakages may undermine the feasibility of the 2 °C climate target and necessitate more stringent mitigation in non-agricultural sectors. Combined with the 2 °C climate target, China’s dietary shift and afforestation policies may amplify insecurity and gross domestic product losses than the 2 °C climate target alone.