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The Welfare Impacts of Avian Influenza on the Turkey Industry: The Role of Trade Strategies in the USA

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  • Shrestha, Kalyani
  • Pendell, Dustin

Abstract

Since early 2022, highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 has caused extensive losses across the U.S. livestock industry through high mortality, depopulation, and severe trade disruptions. While direct losses are significant, indirect costs from export restrictions remain equally damaging. This study assesses the welfare impacts of HPAI on the U.S. turkey sector using an equilibrium displacement model to trace price, quantity, and producer-surplus effects across turkey, chicken, beef, and pork markets from 2022 to 2025. We compare three trade scenarios: no restriction, county-level bans, and state-level bans. In 2023, turkey producer-surplus losses reached approximately $117 million under county-level restrictions, compared to $365 million under state-level bans, a difference of roughly $248 million. These findings underscore the value of precise Sanitary and Phytosanitary protocols in reducing preventable economic losses during future outbreaks.

Suggested Citation

  • Shrestha, Kalyani & Pendell, Dustin, 2026. "The Welfare Impacts of Avian Influenza on the Turkey Industry: The Role of Trade Strategies in the USA," 2026 Annual Meeting, July 26 - 28, 2026, Kansas City, Missouri 404405, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea26:404405
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.404405
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    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/404405/files/177488_197271_115232_AAEA26_HPAI_Kalyani.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Paarlberg, Philip L. & Seitzinger, Ann Hillberg & Lee, John G., 2007. "Economic Impacts of Regionalization of a Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Outbreak in the United States," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 39(2), pages 1-9, August.
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