From Closure to Recovery: Labor, Supply Chain, and Water Use Impacts in the U.S. Food Services Sector During and Post-COVID

This study examines how the U.S. food services sector responded to the COVID-19 pandemic and local business closure policies, with a focus on employment disruptions, upstream supply chain effects, and implications for natural resource use. Using a county-level panel dataset spanning 2013 to 2024, we investigate how key pandemic milestones—including the timing of the first confirmed COVID-19 death, business closure mandates, and the post-COVID recovery period—are associated with changes in food services employment. In the first part of the study, we apply a traditional panel regression model with state fixed effects and an event study design to assess both average and time-varying impacts of these disruptions. The second part analyzes how employment changes in food services affected labor dynamics along the agri-food value chains. In the third part, we explore the implications of these changes for water use in the U.S. We find that strict closure mandates are associated with significant short-term employment declines in food services, and that employment recovery remains incomplete as of 2024. The results highlight the extended economic and environmental ripple effects of pandemic-era disruptions and underscore the importance of localized strategies for managing post-crisis recovery in the food system.