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Political Conflicts and Staple Food Prices: Evidence from 219 Myanmar Rice Markets

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  • Lwin, Wuit Yi
  • Schaefer, K. Aleks
  • Minten, Bart

Abstract

The impacts of conflicts on food markets vary significantly across cases, influenced by a multitude of contextual factors. How do armed conflicts and their aftermath influence the retail prices of staple foods? As a new case study of conflicts and staple food markets in currently conflict-affected areas, we examine how retail staple food prices across different locations are reshaped by analyzing the interplay of factors such as economic activity, population density, conflict severity, proximity to borders and capitals, and the distance between markets. Using monthly retail rice prices from 219 markets located in 114 townships across 9 states and 5 divisions of Myanmar, along with a set of explanatory variables, we investigate the determinants of rice price levels and volatility in individual markets, and the rate of price transmission and price dispersion between market pairs during the pre- and post-coup periods. Our findings reveal a negative relationship between retail rice prices and both conflict severity and travel distance to capitals. Conflicts in source markets lead to a faster rate of price transmission, while conflicts in destination markets result in a slower rate of price transmission. Proximity to borders significantly influences retail rice price levels, price volatility, and the rate of price transmission between market pairs.

Suggested Citation

  • Lwin, Wuit Yi & Schaefer, K. Aleks & Minten, Bart, 2025. "Political Conflicts and Staple Food Prices: Evidence from 219 Myanmar Rice Markets," 2025 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2025, Denver, CO 361224, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea25:361224
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.361224
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