Assessment of the Impact of Climatic and Non-Climatic Parameters on Cocoa Production: A Contextual Analysis for Cameroon

Agriculture remains the mainstay of Cameroon's economy, with cocoa as one of its key export crops. However, cocoa production is affected by climate stressors. This study assesses the influence of climate and non-climate parameters on cocoa performance in Cameroon. We use time series data from the World Bank climate portal, FAOSTAT, and Cameroon’s national institute of statistics. Data is obtained for temperature, rainfall, carbon dioxide emission, land use, labour hours, pesticide quantity, and cocoa output in Cameroon spanning 60 years (1961 to 2021). The trend analysis captures the stochasticity of crop production. Leveraging on the perennial crop supply response framework, a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) estimates climates' short- and long-term impacts on cocoa production. The econometric estimation shows that climatic and non-climatic parameters determine the variations in cocoa output. More specifically, the short-run results reveal that temperature, carbon dioxide emission, land use, and pesticide quantity significantly increase crop yield, whereas rainfall decreases it substantially. Furthermore, the long-run analysis indicates that temperature, rainfall, carbon dioxide emission, and land use are significant negative determinants of the yearly changes in crop output. The study recommends government policy reforms which address access to land, subsidies, and improved production technologies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and enhance farmers' adaptive capacities to climatic stressors.