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Medium Term Outlook for Canadian Agriculture International and Domestic Markets


  • Charlebois, Pierre
  • Gagne, Stephan
  • Gendron, Carole


The purpose of this document is to describe the features of the MTO covering the period 2010 to 2020. The MTO is a plausible future for the international and domestic agri-food sectors based on current policies in Canada and other countries as of Fall 2010. It serves as a benchmark for discussion and scenario analysis. The outlook makes specific assumptions and outlines their implications. Since it assumes that policies remain unchanged from existing legislation, the outlook is not a forecast of future events. In particular there are no assumptions made regarding the outcome of the Doha round of trade negotiations. It also assumes no impact from climate change and from policy to mitigate climate change nor significant animal disease outbreaks or unusual climatic conditions over the period of the outlook. The starting point of the MTO is world agricultural commodities price projection based on the OECD/FAO Agricultural Outlook for 2009/2019 adjusted with more recent information. The Canadian macro-economic forecasts are from the Conference Board of Canada outlook published in September 2010. In addition, short-term price forecasts have been updated using United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) projections released in October 2010. For example, droughts in some southern hemisphere countries and China as well as the foot and mouth outbreak in South Korea have not been taken into account.

Suggested Citation

  • Charlebois, Pierre & Gagne, Stephan & Gendron, Carole, 2011. "Medium Term Outlook for Canadian Agriculture International and Domestic Markets," Economic and Market Information 103186, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaacem:103186

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Tyers,Rod & Anderson,Kym, 2011. "Disarray in World Food Markets," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521172318, March.
    2. George C. Davis & Maria Cristina Espinoza, 1998. "A Unified Approach to Sensitivity Analysis in Equilibrium Displacement Models," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 80(4), pages 868-879.
    3. John E. Floyd, 1965. "The Effects of Farm Price Supports on the Returns to Land and Labor in Agriculture," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 73, pages 148-148.
    4. William Griffiths & Xueyan Zhao, 2000. "A Unified Approach to Sensitivity Analysis in Equilibrium Displacement Models: Comment," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 82(1), pages 236-240.
    5. Thomas W. Hertel, 1989. "PSEs and the Mix of Measures to Support Farm Incomes," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(1), pages 17-28, March.
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