Promoting Structural Transformation in Africa in Times of Anti-Globalization, Economic Nationalism, and Protectionism Sentiments

In recent years, the global economy has been marked by both challenges and opportunities, shaped by significant anti-globalization events such as the 2016 BREXIT vote and the ongoing US-China trade conflict, which have had far-reaching consequences. Given Africa's vulnerability to external influences, this study is conducted for two reasons: first, to explore the unconditional impact of anti-globalization on Africa's structural transformation, and second, to analyze the conditional effects of human capital development on the continent’s structural transformation. In this study, anti-globalization is examined in the context of its risks to the economic, political, social, and financial dimensions of globalization. These risks were quantified with standard errors obtained from first-order autoregressive processes of respective globalization proxies. The analysis focuses on 48 African countries, utilizing data from 2010-2022. The Fixed Effects regression, Driscoll-Kraay Fixed Effects Standard Error regression, and the Bias-Corrected Least Square Dummy Variable (LSDV) were adopted as estimation techniques, with the third serving as a robustness check. The study finds that human capital development positively moderates the negative unconditional impact of anti-globalization on Africa's structural transformation. Critical levels of human capital development for such moderation are provided. Other findings from the study and their associated policy recommendations are discussed in line with the 2063 African Union’s agenda and the United Nations’ sustainable development goals (SDGs).