Climate Change in West Africa: Estimating Temperature Threshold for Agricultural Productivity

This study aims to estimate the temperature threshold for agricultural productivity in West Africa, as little is known about the temperature threshold for agricultural production. The study utilized the Driscoll and Kraay regression, the Prais-Winsten regression, and the Quantile Regression as estimation strategies for 16 West African countries between 1990 and 2021. The findings reveal a threshold value of 24.39 degrees Celsius, above which temperature reduces agricultural productivity. Moreover, the result from the quantile regression reveals a threshold value of 25.27 degrees Celsius in countries where the existing level of agricultural productivity is low. These findings carry significant policy implications for the West African region, as the mean annual temperature is above these threshold values, emphasizing the importance of adopting a comprehensive approach that integrates climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. The findings call for proactive measures to enhance climate resilience and reduce vulnerability by governments in West Africa and stakeholders. Climate-resilient agricultural practices should be adopted, including the use of drought-resistant crop varieties, the development of efficient irrigation systems, the implementation of early warning systems for extreme weather events, and the provision of agricultural extension services to support farmers in adopting sustainable practices.