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Governance and Intercommunal Armed Conflict: Evidence from 49 African Countries

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  • Cheikh T. Ndour

    (Dakar, Senegal)

  • Simplice A. Asongu

    (Johannesburg, South Africa)

Abstract

Poor governance is often blamed for conflict. This study investigates the relationship between governance and intercommunal conflict in 49 African countries over the period 1990-2020, using a correlated random effects model. The results indicate that political stability, rule of law, and regulatory quality significantly reduce the likelihood of intercommunal conflict, both in the short and long term. Ethnic fragmentation is found to directly increase the probability of conflict, but this effect is moderated by effective governance. Economic development, as measured by GDP per capita, also reduces conflict risk. These findings remain robust under various sensitivity checks. Based on these results, the paper offers targeted policy recommendations aimed at addressing ethnic fragmentation and promoting good governance to mitigate the risk of conflict.

Suggested Citation

  • Cheikh T. Ndour & Simplice A. Asongu, 2025. "Governance and Intercommunal Armed Conflict: Evidence from 49 African Countries," Working Papers of the African Governance and Development Institute. 25/003, African Governance and Development Institute..
    • Handle: RePEc:agd:wpaper:25/003
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