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Tracking the Short-Run Price Impact of U.S. Tariffs

Author

Listed:
  • Vazquez Franco Martín
  • Cavallo Alberto
  • Llamas Paola

Abstract

This paper examines the short-run impact of the 2025 U.S. tariffs on consumer prices using a novel integration of high-frequency retail pricing data, product-level country-of-origin information, and detailed tariff classifications. By linking daily prices from major U.S. retailers to Harmonized System (HS) codes and import origins, we construct custom price indices that isolate the direct effects of tariff changes across product categories and trading partners. Our analysis reveals rapid pricing responses, though their magnitude remains modest relative to the announced tariff rates and varies by country of origin. Both imported and domestic goods are affected, suggesting broader pricing and supply chain spillovers. These findings offer timely evidence for policymakers, businesses, and consumers navigating the immediate consequences of trade policy changes.

Suggested Citation

  • Vazquez Franco Martín & Cavallo Alberto & Llamas Paola, 2025. "Tracking the Short-Run Price Impact of U.S. Tariffs," Asociación Argentina de Economía Política: Working Papers 4844, Asociación Argentina de Economía Política.
    • Handle: RePEc:aep:anales:4844
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    File URL: https://aaep.org.ar/works/works2025/4844.pdf
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

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