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Is Good News for Donald Trump Bad News for the Peso?


  • T. Randolph Beard
  • Hyeongwoo Kim
  • Michael Stern


We study the dynamic relationship between Mr. Trump’s prospects and the US dollar-peso exchange rate, controlling for other factors that determine the overall US dollar exchange rates. Increases in Mr. Trump’s probability of winning generate short-run but statistically significant and economically meaningful disturbances in the US dollar-peso exchange rate.

Suggested Citation

  • T. Randolph Beard & Hyeongwoo Kim & Michael Stern, 2016. "Is Good News for Donald Trump Bad News for the Peso?," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2016-13, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
  • Handle: RePEc:abn:wpaper:auwp2016-13

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    Donald Trump; PredictIt; Peso; Vector Autoregression;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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