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Mjerenje međuzavisnosti poslovnih ciklusa i ekonomskoga rasta u Hrvatskoj primjenom spektralne analize

In: Zbornik radova znanstvenog skupa: Razvojni potencijali hrvatskog gospodarstva, (ur. Družić, G.; Družić, I., izdavač: Ekonomski fakultet Zagreb; Hrvatska akademija znanosti i umjetnosti)

Author

Listed:
  • Marinko Škare

    (Juraj Dobrila University of Pula, Department of Economics and Tourism "Dr. Mijo Mirković")

Abstract

U ovome su radu po prvi puta analizirani ciklusi i ekonomski rast primjenom metode spektralne analize u razdoblju od 1991. - 2013. godine. Metode spektralne analize pokazale su se izuzetno primjenjivima u uvjetima šokova, kratkih serija i strukturnih lomova u serijama. U radu je također primijenjena metoda spektralne Granger uzročnosti. Primjenom spektralne analize dokazana je endogenost poslovnih ciklusa i ekonomskoga rasta u Hrvatskoj. Poslovni ciklusi i ekonomski rast u Hrvatskoj su jedna pojava – dvije strane iste medalje. Poslovni ciklusi Granger uzrokuju ekonomski rast dok povratna veza nije dokazana. Također je dokazano postojanje histerije rasta u hrvatskome gospodarstvu – šokovi u agregatnoj potražnji nisu privremeni već imaju trajne i nepovratne poslje dice u hrvatskoj ekonomiji. Fiskalna politika ima veliki udio u šokovima, a novac nije neutralan u dugome roku, čime se iziskuje cjelovito preispitivanje primjene fiskalne i monetarne politike u hrvatskome gospodarstvu. U Hrvatskoj je potrebno uvesti jedinstveni pristup izučavanju ciklusa i rasta kako bi se konačno dao odgovor na pitanja koja je uloga monetarne i fiskalne politike u Hrvatskoj i kakva bi ona trebala biti.

Suggested Citation

  • Marinko Škare, 2014. "Mjerenje međuzavisnosti poslovnih ciklusa i ekonomskoga rasta u Hrvatskoj primjenom spektralne analize," EFZG Occasional Publications (Department of Macroeconomics), in: Zbornik radova znanstvenog skupa: Razvojni potencijali hrvatskog gospodarstva, (ur. Družić, G.; Družić, I., izdavač: Ekonomski fakultet Zagreb; Hrvats, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 3, pages 53-76, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb.
    • Handle: RePEc:zag:chaptr:14-07
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    ciklusi; ekonomski rast; Granger uzročnost; spektralna analiza; impuls-odzivna funkcija; hrvatsko gospodarstvo;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C49 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Other
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

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