Chasing the Path of Global Changing Preferences – Forecasting Meat Prices: The Case of Armenia

The volumes of global meat consumption have recently increased significantly. According to international forecasts, this indicator will continue to grow, mostly in developing countries. The structural changes in meat consumption have also been noted: The volume of poultry consumption has increased significantly. These trends are also present in Armenia. In Armenia, beef consumption remains the most dominant compared to other types of meat. However, it has notably declined over the past year. Meanwhile, poultry consumption is growing at the fastest rate. These shifts are driven by various factors, with price levels being a key determinant. For vulnerable social groups, meat consumption is particularly sensitive to price fluctuations; sharp price increases can exacerbate existing social challenges. This underscores the importance of forecasting meat prices. Using quarterly data from 2004 to 2024, the authors forecasted the prices of beef, pork, and poultry for the period spanning Q3 2024 to Q4 2026. To analyze the time series data, the authors employed ARIMA models, selected through an automated optimal model search algorithm in the R software package. The Ljung–Box test was used to assess the presence of autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation in the model residuals. The best models were identified based on their Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), ensuring minimal forecasting error. The results of this analysis hold significant value for consumers, sellers, and policymakers, aiding in production planning and price-related decision-making.