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Dynamic Portfolio Optimization under Regime-Based Firm Strength

In: Stochastic Programming Applications in Finance, Energy, Planning and Logistics

Author

Listed:
  • Chanaka Edirisinghe

    (College of Business, Austin Peay State University, Clarksville, TN 37044, USA)

  • Xin Zhang

    (College of Business, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN 37996, USA)

Abstract

This chapter presents a dynamic optimization model under regime-switching market uncertainty to manage stock portfolios. The novelty of the approach is that stocks for long and short investments are selected based on the notion of fundamental business strength and consistent with specific regime scenarios. Firm-strength is determined via the quarterly financial statements of a firm, relative to other firms in the same market sector/industry. Referred to as Relative Firm Strength (RFS), it is determined using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) in which various financial metrics from accounting statements are specified as inputs and outputs. It is shown that such an RFS measure has predictive power of stock returns in the historical data period 1971–2010. The regime-switching market model is combined with the RFS metric of stock selections to test the performance of a two-quarter stochastic portfolio optimization model during Jan–Jun, 2011. The out-of-sample results demonstrate that the proposed methodology is superior to using sector-based ETF portfolios or the market index itself.

Suggested Citation

  • Chanaka Edirisinghe & Xin Zhang, 2013. "Dynamic Portfolio Optimization under Regime-Based Firm Strength," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Horand I Gassmann & William T Ziemba (ed.), Stochastic Programming Applications in Finance, Energy, Planning and Logistics, chapter 6, pages 129-154, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
  • Handle: RePEc:wsi:wschap:9789814407519_0006
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