The Dosage Breeding Theory for Horse Racing Predictions

This chapter surveys the dosage breeding theory pioneered by Vuilliers, Varola, and Roman with major emphasis on two top classic three-year-old thoroughbred races, namely, the Kentucky Derby and the Belmont Stakes. Run at 1¼ mi and ½ mi respectively, they typically are at least ⅛ and ¼ mi longer than any of the horses has ever raced before. This extra distance, combined with the large fields (especially in the Derby), make these two races a difficult test of stamina for horses this young. Bettors are also challenged because there is no direct evidence of whether a horse has the stamina to compete effectively at these distances. The informational content of the publicly available, pedigree-based measure of stamina, the Dosage Index, is used with simple performance measures to identify a semi-strong-form inefficiency. Statistically significant profits, net of transaction costs, could have been achieved during 1946-2006. This can be compared to the middle leg of the Triple Crown, the Preakness, run at ${\raise0.5ex\hbox{$\scriptstyle {13}$}\kern-0.1em/\kern-0.15em\lower0.25ex\hbox{$\scriptstyle {16}$}}$, where the Dosage Index provided no advantage.