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The 2012-2013 Playoffs and the Super Bowl

In: Dr Z’s NFL Guidebook

Author

Listed:
  • William T. Ziemba
  • Leonard C. MacLean

Abstract

In this chapter we trace the NFL playoffs leading to the 2013 super bowl on February 3rd in the New Orleans super dome. By tracing bets I made on Betfair, I hope to illustrate some general investment ideas and their use. These US football markets, which trade continuously on Betfair, have considerable mean reversion in scores and field position that gets quickly translated into odds. Hence there is risk arbitrage that helps you win the bets even if the team you start betting on actually loses the game. The goal is to make bets so that no matter which team wins, you make a profit. That means that (US odds on A)(US odds on B)>1 or (UK odds- -1 on A)(UK odds -1 on B)>1.

Suggested Citation

  • William T. Ziemba & Leonard C. MacLean, 2018. "The 2012-2013 Playoffs and the Super Bowl," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Dr Z’s NFL Guidebook, chapter 10, pages 129-147, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:wschap:9789813276505_0010
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    NFL Players ; Coaches; Strategies; Mean Reversion; Efficient Markets; Sports Enthusiasts;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Z23 - Other Special Topics - - Sports Economics - - - Finance
    • Z21 - Other Special Topics - - Sports Economics - - - Industry Studies
    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism

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