An Empirical Analysis of Corn Price Fluctuation Characteristics in China—Based on ARCH-type Models

The sustained volatility of maize prices in recent years has had a negative impact on China’s agricultural economy and livelihoods. To deeply investigate the risks in the maize market, the article uses the X-12-ARIMA seasonal adjustment method, the HP filter method, and the ARCH class model to analyze the characteristics of maize price volatility. The study found that: Since 2006, maize prices have generally been fluctuating and rising. There are obvious seasonal effects, indicating that domestic maize supply and demand have changed from oversupply to tight supply-demand balance, and supply and demand have a greater impact on maize prices. There is a significant agglomeration effect and negative asymmetric characteristics of maize price fluctuations, implying that negative news will cause maize prices to continue to fluctuate significantly. To this end, the article makes three suggestions: first, accelerate the scale and modernization of maize production and improve the risk resistance of the maize market, secondly, further play the decisive role of the market in resource allocation and reduce policy intervention, and third, build an authoritative open platform for maize market information and establish a market risk monitoring and early warning mechanism.