Randomised Mixture Models for Pricing Kernels

Numerous kinds of uncertainties may affect an economy, e.g. economic, political, and environmental ones. We model the aggregate impact by the uncertainties on an economy and its associated financial market by randomised mixtures of Lévy processes. We assume that market participants observe the randomised mixtures only through best estimates based on noisy market information. The concept of incomplete information introduces an element of stochastic filtering theory in constructing what we term “filtered Esscher martingales”. We make use of this family of martingales to develop pricing kernel models. Examples of bond price models are examined, and we show that the choice of the random mixture has a significant effect on the model dynamics and the types of movements observed in the associated yield curves. Parameter sensitivity is analysed and option price processes are derived. We extend the class of pricing kernel models by considering a weighted heat kernel approach, and develop models driven by mixtures of Markov processes.