IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this book chapter

Forecasting of the Number of the International Tourism Arrivals for the Needs of the Bulgarian International Airports


  • Sophia Mirchova

    (South-West University ‘Neofit Rislki,’ Bulgaria)


The international airports in Bulgaria are put under serious pressure by the low cost carriers to make innovations that would allow them to attract a greater passenger flow. The problem of forecasting of the international tourism arrivals on place is crucial to the formation of proper innovation infrastructure policy for the future development of the airports. This paper proposes present paper regards several major problems in the application of exponential smoothing methods for the purpose of the international tourism arrivals on the Bulgarian international airports (the Sofia International Airport in particular), such as: (i) the problem of determining the time series pattern; (ii) the selection of a suitable forecasting method; (iii) Calculating of short-run and longrun forecasts; and (iv) the comparison of the results of the forecast techniques on the basis of the errors in the forecasts. In regards to the time series available the Halt-Winters smoothing method is being suggested as the most appropriate for the needs of the Bulgarian airports and the process of planning of their infrastructure. The paper also provides some conclusions and recommendations for the innovation infrastructure policy of the Bulgarian international airports on the attraction of the budget, low-cost carriers Suggestions are also given for the necessary improvements in the airport infrastructure.

Suggested Citation

  • Sophia Mirchova, 2013. "Forecasting of the Number of the International Tourism Arrivals for the Needs of the Bulgarian International Airports," Active Citizenship by Knowledge Management & Innovation: Proceedings of the Management, Knowledge and Learning International Conference 2013, ToKnowPress.
  • Handle: RePEc:tkp:mklp13:1165-1176

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    File Function: full text
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL:
    File Function: Conference Programme
    Download Restriction: no


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tkp:mklp13:1165-1176. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Alen Jezovnik). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.