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Relating Postal Activity to the Business Cycle by Linear Regression with Integral Equations

In: New Business and Regulatory Strategies in the Postal Sector

Author

Listed:
  • Katalin K. Clendenin

    (U.S. Postal Regulatory Commission)

  • Soiliou D. Namoro

    (U.S. Postal Regulatory Commission)

  • Edward S. Pearsall

    (Independent Consultant)

Abstract

We relate the cyclical components of USPS volumes and revenues per piece to a coincident indicator of the business cycle. The relationships are represented as linear integral equations and fit employing specialized algebraic methods. Our technique yields OLS estimates in the form of continuous coefficient functions spanning three years. In general, we find that USPS volumes and revenues respond to business conditions as expected but with diverse timings. However, our fits do not explain a high percentage of the variation in the cyclical component of any postal time series. Overall, U.S. postal activity does not appear to be strongly related to the business cycle.

Suggested Citation

  • Katalin K. Clendenin & Soiliou D. Namoro & Edward S. Pearsall, 2018. "Relating Postal Activity to the Business Cycle by Linear Regression with Integral Equations," Topics in Regulatory Economics and Policy, in: Pier Luigi Parcu & Timothy J. Brennan & Victor Glass (ed.), New Business and Regulatory Strategies in the Postal Sector, pages 251-268, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:topchp:978-3-030-02937-1_19
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-02937-1_19
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