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Statistically Testing the Representative Capacity

In: Mathematical Theory of Democracy

Author

Listed:
  • Andranik Tangian

    (WSI Hans-Böckler-Foundation)

Abstract

A statistical test of the representative capacity of a candidate, party or coalition is developed. As observations, we consider how well the candidate (coalition) positions on several policy issues, such as ‘Introduce nationwide minimum wage’ (Yes/No), ‘Privatize railways’ (Yes/No), etc., match up with the prevailing public opinion on these issues. If the issues are few and the candidates are numerous, then even a perfect match says little about the representative capacity, because it is always possible that one candidate, or one coalition out of many, will align with public opinion on a couple of topics. To perform the test, the probability of the observed match of the candidate/ coalition position with the prevailing public opinion is found under the null hypothesis, assuming no representative capacity but coincidence by chance. If this probability is small, then the null hypothesis is rejected and the alternative hypothesis (existence of representative capacity) is accepted. The test developed is applied to the five German parties and their coalitions considered in Chapter 8.

Suggested Citation

  • Andranik Tangian, 2014. "Statistically Testing the Representative Capacity," Studies in Choice and Welfare, in: Mathematical Theory of Democracy, edition 127, chapter 0, pages 353-423, Springer.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:stcchp:978-3-642-38724-1_9
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-642-38724-1_9
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