Quantification of Risk and Control of Bidding for a Nuclear Power Plant Project’s Marine Water Intake Project

As a capital- and technology-intensive sector, nuclear power projects are characterized by substantial investment requirements and extended construction timelines, with bidding management exerting a significant influence on both project efficiency and quality. In response to the limitations of traditional bidding practices, particularly the difficulty in quantifying risk and the insufficiency of risk control measures, this study establishes a closed-loop system integrating risk quantification and risk control. Specifically, the weights of 15 identified risk factors are determined through the Analytic Hierarchy Process. A guarantee rate of no less than 95% for the control price is achieved using Monte Carlo simulation. Additionally, through enhancements in the design scheme comparison and optimization process, approximately 45% of cofferdam construction costs are reduced, construction-related risks are mitigated, and resource reuse yields savings of approximately two million yuan. This approach facilitates the transition of nuclear power bidding management from reliance on empirical decision-making toward a data-driven model.