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Household and Living Arrangement Projections in China at the National Level

In: Household and Living Arrangement Projections

Author

Listed:
  • Yi Zeng

    (Duke University, Center for Study of Aging and Human Development Medical School
    Peking University, National School of Development Center for Healthy Aging and Development Studies)

  • Kenneth C. Land

    (Duke University, Department of Sociology and Center for Population Health and Aging Population Research Institute)

  • Danan Gu

    (United Nations, Population Division)

  • Zhenglian Wang

    (Duke University, Center for Population Health and Aging Population Research Institute
    Household and Consumption Forecasting, Inc.)

Abstract

Our projection study demonstrated that, while the population in China will be aging at a rapid speed and to a huge scale, particularly the oldest-old aged 80+, Chinese family households will continue to contract to a substantially smaller average size in the next a few decades. The proportion of elderly households with at least one person aged 65+ will increase dramatically in China in the next few decades. By the years 2030 and 2050, the proportion of the elderly aged 65+ living in empty-nest households without children among the total population will be 2.5 and 3.7 times that in 2000. The increase in percentages of the oldest-old living in empty-nest households will be even more dramatic: 4 and 11.5 times as high as in 2000 for the years 2030 and 2050. These aging population structure problems – with respect to proportion of elderly and elderly households as well as proportion of elderly living in empty-nest households – will be much more serious in rural areas than in urban areas. This strongly suggests that, to avoid serious social problems in the future China needs to change its household registration policy which restricts free movement from rural to urban areas and to adopt policies encouraging rural-to-urban family migration or family reunion after young migrants settle down in urban areas.

Suggested Citation

  • Yi Zeng & Kenneth C. Land & Danan Gu & Zhenglian Wang, 2014. "Household and Living Arrangement Projections in China at the National Level," The Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis, in: Household and Living Arrangement Projections, edition 127, chapter 0, pages 211-223, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:ssdmcp:978-90-481-8906-9_12
    DOI: 10.1007/978-90-481-8906-9_12
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