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Preliminaries

In: Forecasting International Migration in Europe: A Bayesian View

Author

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  • Jakub Bijak

    (School of Social Sciences, Centre for Population Change and S3RI, University of Southampton)

Abstract

In the current chapter, four issues are briefly addressed, which are vital to the further discussion, yet not sufficiently within the scope of the topic of this book to be presented in full. Firstly, the problems with migration data are dealt with, focusing on the diversity of definitions, measurement errors, and possible ways to overcome the inconsistencies within the statistical information. Secondly, the issues concerning uncertainty, subjectivity and expert judgement are discussed, together with their role in migration forecasting. Thirdly, general remarks on the Bayesian statistical inference are presented, with the aim of serving as reference throughout the remaining parts of the book. Finally, numerical algorithms used in Bayesian computations are briefly discussed, based on the example of Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations.

Suggested Citation

  • Jakub Bijak, 2011. "Preliminaries," The Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis, in: Forecasting International Migration in Europe: A Bayesian View, chapter 0, pages 15-34, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:ssdmcp:978-90-481-8897-0_2
    DOI: 10.1007/978-90-481-8897-0_2
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