Heterogeneity in Hispanic Fertility: Confronting the Challenges of Estimation and Disaggregation

In recent years, Hispanics in the United States have experienced greater declines in fertility, on the one hand, and sustained higher fertility rates, on the other hand, compared to non-Hispanic groups. Despite considerable attention in the literature, efforts to understand these aggregate trends are hindered by the complex heterogeneity in the Hispanic population. Prior work demonstrates the importance of disaggregating the Hispanic population by nativity and marital status, among other dimensions, in the context of fertility. Yet data constraints create challenges for correctly estimating yearly population counts by nativity, marital status, and other factors not included in U.S. Census population estimates but essential for providing an accurate assessment of Hispanic fertility rates based on vital registration systems. In this chapter, we first discuss important sources of heterogeneity in Hispanic fertility identified in prior literature as well as challenges and potential solutions to correctly estimating variation in Hispanic fertility. Next, we use birth counts from the U.S. vital statistics system and population distributions from the American Community Survey (ACS) adjusted to U.S. Census population totals to estimate Hispanic age-specific fertility rates (ASFR) from 2006–2016 by nativity, region of origin, and marital status. Finally, we demonstrate how decomposition analysis can be applied to Hispanic fertility rates cross-classified by multiple factors over time to better understand the extent to which observed changes in fertility are due to changes in the composition of population sub-groups that have differential childbearing risk.