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Cohort Effects on Fertility as Age-Period Interactions: A Reanalysis of American Birth Rates, 1917–2020

Author

Listed:
  • Robert Schoen

    (Pennsylvania State University)

  • Lowell Hargens

    (University of Washington, Department of Sociology)

Abstract

Fertility behavior, which is family building behavior, is widely seen as being influenced by age, period, and cohort factors, where cohort is a proxy for past influences. To avoid the collinearity problems caused by the fact that Age = Period − Cohort, we consider cohort effects to be Age*Period interactions. The RBC procedure is developed to decompose an array of fertility rates into its age, period, and age-period interaction components. Essentially, the RBC approach represents every birth rate as the product of three factors: the period fertility level, an average age-specific fertility proportion, and the age-period interaction. Calculations with hypothetical populations show how cohort effects appear as interaction effects. The RBC approach is then applied to United States fertility data for the 1917–1973 and 1974–2020 intervals. Numerous noteworthy interactions are found, but there is no clear evidence of cohort effects. We conclude that period effects are real and substantively important, not simply distortions of cohort behavior. Age and period effects have driven American fertility to a record low level, while cohort effects are not to be seen.

Suggested Citation

Handle: RePEc:spr:ssdmcp:978-3-031-29666-6_5
DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-29666-6_5
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