Sequence Analysis of Lifetime Internal Migration Trajectories: Onward, Return and Circular Migration

By applying sequence and cluster analysis to annual migration histories from birth to age 50, this chapter reconstructs the lifetime migration behaviour of baby boomers in 27 European countries. It identifies six ideal-typical migration trajectories delineated by the number of internal migrations, their timing and direction. Over 51 per cent of individuals who migrated once and went on to migrate at least once more, and over 20 per cent of individuals follow complex trajectories that combine multiple onward migrations, with return migration for some. Frequent adult migrants are more likely to have been exposed to migration early in life but their educational profile varies widely: repeat onward migrants display the highest level of educational attainment while repeat circular migrants tend to be negatively selected. At the same time, the sizeable proportion of one-time migrants demonstrates that the link between past and future migration is not deterministic: one’s migration experience facilitates, but does not trigger, future migration. Collectively, these results indicate that migration is a complex practice and the diversity of migration trajectories found across Europe suggests that migration behaviour is conditioned by socio-demographic attributes and the broader societal context.