Health Care Need Adjusted Prospective Old-age Dependency Ratio in Selected European Countries

One of the not so often mentioned consequence of the population ageing is the expected increase of financial burden of health care systems. Standard and commonly used simple indicators of this burden are usually based on the relation of the number of old (or the oldest old) persons and the number of persons in productive age. The threshold of old age is very often determined as the age of 65 years. But many latest studies propose that due to the permanent increase of life expectancy the definition of the old age threshold should be more likely based on the expected remaining length of life, on the expected time to death. According to some analyses, especially during the last five years of the life of old-age persons the need of health care is relatively high. Possible indicator of the health care financial burden of this type can be e.g. the Health care need adjusted prospective old-age dependency ratio. It is determined as the proportion of the expected number of old age persons having time to death lower than 5 years and the number of persons in productive age where the upper threshold of productive age is defined using not the chronological but the prospective age. The paper contains the development of the values of the Health care need adjusted prospective old-age dependency ratio and other alternative indicator of ageing in selected European countries in the period since 1950 until 2100. The estimates of future values are based on the latest Eurostat population projection.