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Uncertainty and Narratives of the Future: A Theoretical Framework for Contemporary Fertility

In: Analyzing Contemporary Fertility

Author

Listed:
  • Daniele Vignoli

    (University of Florence)

  • Giacomo Bazzani

    (University of Florence)

  • Raffaele Guetto

    (University of Florence)

  • Alessandra Minello

    (University of Florence)

  • Elena Pirani

    (University of Florence)

Abstract

Explanations for fertility decisions based on structural constraints—such as labor, housing condition, or income—do not account for the contemporary fertility downturn faced by many countries in Europe. In this paper, we posit that the rise of uncertainty is central for understanding contemporary fertility dynamics. We propose a theoretical framework (the Narrative Framework) for the study of fertility decisions under uncertain conditions based on expectations, imaginaries and narratives. Relying on the idea of future–oriented action, we argue that uncertainty needs to be conceptualized and operationalized taking into account that people use works of imagination, producing their own narrative of the future. Narratives of the future are potent driving forces helping people to act according to or despite uncertainty. We present the different elements of the Narrative Framework and address its causal validity. We conclude by highlighting the advantages of taking into account the narratives of the future in fertility research.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniele Vignoli & Giacomo Bazzani & Raffaele Guetto & Alessandra Minello & Elena Pirani, 2020. "Uncertainty and Narratives of the Future: A Theoretical Framework for Contemporary Fertility," The Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis, in: Robert Schoen (ed.), Analyzing Contemporary Fertility, edition 1, chapter 0, pages 25-47, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:ssdmcp:978-3-030-48519-1_3
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-48519-1_3
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