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Coherent Mortality Forecasting with Standards: Low Mortality Serves as a Guide

In: Developments in Demographic Forecasting

Author

Listed:
  • Heather Booth

    (Australian National University, School of Demography)

Abstract

Mortality forecasts are an important component of population forecasting and are central to the estimation of longevity risk in actuarial practice. Planning by the state for health and aged care services and by individuals for retirement and later life depends on accurate mortality forecasts. The overall accuracy or performance of mortality forecasting has improved since Lee and Carter (1992) introduced stochastic forecasting of mortality to the demographic community, and further improvements can undoubtedly be made.

Suggested Citation

  • Heather Booth, 2020. "Coherent Mortality Forecasting with Standards: Low Mortality Serves as a Guide," The Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis, in: Stefano Mazzuco & Nico Keilman (ed.), Developments in Demographic Forecasting, chapter 0, pages 153-178, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:ssdmcp:978-3-030-42472-5_8
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-42472-5_8
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