Capability or Intention: Ambition and Restraint in China’s Military Build-Up

As China’s global influenceGlobal influence expands, what will be the shape and content of its global ambitions? Will China seek to expand its power through territorial acquisition, co-opting client statesClient states, or tradeTrade? Most crucially, under what circumstances will China regard as situations where it has no choice but to threaten, or even use military force? To answer those questions, this chapter aims to provide a framework through which to view changes and continuities of China’s intent behind its military build-upMilitary build-up. The argument is that China’s ‘invasion-proneInvasion / invaders’ geography, conservative worldviewConservative (worldview), pragmatic military strategyMilitary strategy and historical lessons demonstrate that war and territorial expansion do not assure enduring security, and may even lead to a decline in central power. This has fostered a Chinese strategic tradition that leans more towards defence than offenceOffence (military strategy), and coexistenceCoexistence rather than aggression. The primary motive behind strengthening China’s military capability is to build a deterrent force. The intended outcome is to induce any potential rivals to reconsider their presumptions of assured victory when intervening in China’s peripheral regions, thereby fostering conflict resolutionConflict resolution through non-military or soft-power approaches.