British Long Waves, Hegemonic Power, and Climate Change

This chapter examines the record of long-term growth per capita, and other variables, for the British economy from the late 1500s through to the 2020s, with a view to scrutinizing those periods when long-wave upswings were in line with hegemonic forces, and the way in which climate change linked to these processes. We find two periods when long-term growth per capita was above average and associated with very long-wave upswings. One of these spurts of long-wave upswing overlapped with British hegemony during the 1820s–1860s. The climate change pattern is complex, with the first half of the 1800s experiencing cooling or constant temperatures, and the second half heating. A more upbeat long-wave upswing occurred during US hegemony (1950s–1980s), and afterward, when long-wave downswing emerged during US relative hegemony, climate change crises operated along with other polycrises. We seek to understand why these good wave upswings occurred during periods of hegemony. Special attention is then given to the late 1700s through to the late 1800s when the British Pathways and Circuits of Socioeconomic Dynamics (CSD) were forming and developing sufficiently to promote long upswings and hegemony. Much of the chapter outlines the nature of this CSD, comprising global, state, geo-ecological, technological, financial, and household relationships. We then seek to comprehend why CSD declined and how it impacted growth and hegemony. The chapter ends with a discussion of the decline of British hegemony into the late 1800s and early 1900s, through to the later episode of US hegemony and its demise, plus the start of the Asian (especially Chinese) rise.