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Long Waves of Global, Regional, and National Economies, 1940–2020

In: Long Waves of Growth, Hegemonic Power, and Climate Change in the World Economy

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  • Phillip Anthony O’Hara

    (Global Political Economy Research Unit (GPERU))

Abstract

This chapter examines the complex evolution and metamorphosis of decadal real GDP per capita AAGR for the global, continental, and national political economies over the period from 1940 to 2020. This is during the period of US hegemonic rise and fall, China’s eventual rise (and relative fall), and climate change’s fall and rise. The data used is Maddison’s mostly for 1940–1960 and the World Bank online WDI database mainly for 1961–2020. Emphasis is given to changes in the rate of per capita economic growth over time, arranged by decades, including the periodicity, amplitude, and phases of short, long, and secular waves. The chapter starts by summarizing the stylized long wave pattern for 1940–2020, which is then compared with the World, seven continents/regions, and 105 nations. Stylized facts about short, long, and secular wave patterns are scrutinized in relation to amplitude, periodicity, deviations from the stylized model, and the World wave, plus multiple and erratic waves and patterns.

Suggested Citation

  • Phillip Anthony O’Hara, 2025. "Long Waves of Global, Regional, and National Economies, 1940–2020," Springer Books, in: Long Waves of Growth, Hegemonic Power, and Climate Change in the World Economy, chapter 0, pages 461-505, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sprchp:978-981-96-4132-1_11
    DOI: 10.1007/978-981-96-4132-1_11
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