Export Performance and CASA Trade: Demystifying the Role of Structural Factors

The economic strength of export markets relies on many variables, including price and non-price competition as well as structural elements. The influence of structural determinants on trade dynamism in Central and Asian (CASA) commerce has garnered little academic focus. This research primarily examines the structural factors influencing trade, using constant market share (CMS) analysis to assess the years 2005 to 2022. It focuses on regional import growth, the composition effect of commodities, the market distribution effect, and both competitive price and non-price effects. The findings suggest that, from a long-term perspective, both regions have experienced a decline in their global price competitiveness, making the analysis challenging. The regional import growth impact reflects the increase in exports that would have occurred had the exporting nation maintained a consistent share of the regional market. CASA exports would have grown by 80–95% of the actual growth observed between the two periods, with the exception of Pakistan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan, which did not achieve this range. India, Pakistan, and Uzbekistan experienced suboptimal export gains compared to the overall growth in intra- and inter-regional trade. The exports of Turkmenistan and Kyrgyzstan saw much lower-than-proportional growth due to their commodity mix. In terms of market distribution effects, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Pakistan suffered notable declines in market share, while Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, Afghanistan, and India increased their exports (both intra- and inter-regional) by engaging with rapidly growing trading partners. The structural impact on their exports ranged from a minimum of 7% for India to a maximum of 37% for Uzbekistan. From 2019 to 2022, Central Asia had a deterioration in price competitiveness, but South Asia’s international competitiveness improved. Afghanistan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan have seen a decline in intra-regional competitiveness, but India, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Turkmenistan have enhanced their standing owing to structural transformations. Turkmenistan and Kyrgyzstan have derived considerable advantages from both price and non-price considerations, but Kazakhstan (24%), Afghanistan (51%), and Tajikistan (19%) have suffered losses. This study introduces regional and international trade negotiations and sets a standard for understanding them. It focuses on trade facilitation and suggests ways to lower the costs of trade facilitation and logistical problems in CASA.