Source-Sink Matching and Spatial Planning for CCUS Engineering

CCUS initiatives remain fragmented, with pilot-scale projects concentrated in select nations, underscoring the absence of coordinated strategies to align deployment with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5–2 °C targets. This chapter introduces the C3IAM/GCOP optimization model, a pioneering framework for global CCUS source-sink matching, integrating 4220 identified carbon clusters and 794 evaluated storage basins. The model employs linear programming to minimize total system costs (2020–2050) across capture, transportation, and storage phases, while addressing national infrastructure disparities, cost heterogeneity, and socio-economic priorities. Key findings reveal that achieving the 2 °C target necessitates mobilizing 3093 carbon clusters across 85 countries, storing 58.61 gigatons of CO2 in saline formations and 33.39 gigatons via CO2-enhanced oil recovery (CO2-EOR). Geospatial analysis highlights regional disparities: over 80% of source-sink matches occur within 300 km, yet long-distance transport dominates in China and Russia. Economically, the global net deployment cost is projected at $57.6 trillion (2019 prices), offset by $24.4 trillion in EOR revenues. Unit abatement costs average $62.65/ton, varying from −$10.02 to $125.06/ton across nations. Sensitivity analyses indicate oil price fluctuations ($55–$95/barrel) critically influence profitability, with 75% of EOR projects viable above $100/barrel. Eight countries/regions—led by China, the United States, and the EU—contribute 76% of emission reductions, though cost burdens disproportionately impact major economies. The study underscores the imperative of multinational collaboration, equitable responsibility-sharing, and leveraging EOR synergies to enhance CCUS feasibility. This work advances CCUS from fragmented demonstrations to cluster-based deployment, offering actionable pathways for global climate mitigation and supporting China’s carbon neutrality ambitions.