Risk Management for CCUS Projects

Carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) technology, as a critical pathway toward achieving carbon neutrality, faces multidimensional and interconnected risks throughout its lifecycle, necessitating systematic risk management to balance emission reduction benefits with potential threats. Based on the ISO framework, CCUS risks are categorized into policy risks (e.g., regulatory gaps and geopolitical volatility), economic risks (e.g., high costs and limited financing channels), HSE risks (e.g., CO2 leakage, induced seismicity, and ecological impacts), technical risks (e.g., immature processes and data scarcity), market risks (e.g., underdeveloped carbon markets and competitive technologies), resource risks (e.g., increased energy/water consumption), and social risks (e.g., low public acceptance). These risks dynamically interact across project phases and require tiered assessment through qualitative (e.g., feature-event-process (FEP) analysis), quantitative (e.g., CO2-PENS modeling and Monte Carlo simulations), and semi-quantitative (e.g., risk matrices and the as low as reasonably practicable (ALARP) principle) methods. Qualitative approaches address data-scarce scenarios, quantitative methods leverage numerical simulations to quantify leakage probabilities and economic losses, while semi-quantitative strategies integrate expert judgment and scenario-based decision-making. Mitigation strategies encompass: Technological advancements, including low-energy capture materials and intelligent monitoring systems, alongside cross-industry data-sharing platforms; policy alignment, refining regulations by integrating international frameworks (e.g., the US 45Q tax credit) and clarifying post-closure liability mechanisms; economic incentives, reducing costs through economies of scale, innovating carbon-financing instruments, and diversifying funding models; HSE management, implementing lifecycle leakage early-warning systems and enhancing reservoir integrity assessments with emergency protocols; social engagement, fostering transparency and participatory governance to boost public trust. Future priorities include developing dynamic risk assessment tools, harmonizing international technical standards, and promoting synergies between CCUS and renewable energy systems. These efforts aim to overcome commercialization barriers and accelerate the scalable deployment of CCUS, ensuring its pivotal role in achieving global net-zero targets with balanced risk–benefit outcomes.