Carbon Reduction Pathways and CCUS Projects

This chapter examines carbon reduction pathways and the critical role of carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) in achieving global temperature control targets, particularly the 2 ℃ and 1.5 ℃ goals. Using the C3IAM integrated assessment model, it analyzes CCUS deployment requirements across different mitigation scenarios and their contributions to global and national emission reduction efforts. Research demonstrates CCUS as an essential component of climate mitigation strategies, with projections indicating a required reduction of 2.2–29.96 billion tons of CO2 annually by 2050. IPCC assessments reveal that nearly 90% of viable carbon neutrality pathways depend on CCUS, potentially contributing up to 44.3 billion tons of CO2 mitigation by 2100. By 2070, CCUS is expected to rank as the fourth-largest emissions reduction technology, accounting for 15% of total reductions through phased deployment. In China, CCUS serves as a key solution for reconciling coal-dependent energy security with carbon neutrality. Cumulative reductions of 19–25 billion tons of CO2 will be needed from 2030 to 2060, primarily in the power sector (>70%), as well as the steel and cement industries. However, scaling up CCUS faces challenges, including policy gaps, high costs, technical limitations, and public acceptance issues. Despite over 40 demonstration projects, China’s current annual capture capacity remains at just 3 million tons—far below US and European levels. Overcoming barriers such as capture costs, energy penalties, and storage risks will be crucial for CCUS to fulfill its climate mitigation potential.