Terrorism→Poverty→Road Building: Risk Analysis of the Underlying Logic of the CPEC Infrastructure

Can the infrastructure capacity, which is represented by road building, thoroughly eliminate the threat of terrorism faced by the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)? In this regard, the mainstream opinion is quite affirmative. In their view, terrorism is rooted in poverty, while roads and other infrastructure are the social overhead capital to eradicate poverty. As the flagship project of BRI, the US$46 billion infrastructure projects involved in CPEC follow exactly the same “terrorism→poverty→road building” logic. However, studies from both China and foreign countries show that many terrorists come from good backgrounds, and poor countries export fewer terrorists than rich ones, and there is no direct causal correlation between terrorism and poverty. Even if roads are built, they will not necessarily lead to wealth, and they may facilitate the flow of resources from poor areas to rich ones, thus widening the gap between regions. It can be seen that there are huge uncertainties in the infrastructure logic of CPEC based on economic dogmatism. Moreover, CPEC has to face up to terrorism (Pakistan has set up a specialized protection force for this) and solidify the spatial correlation between the two countries in terrorist attacks (there is a co-integration relationship between time series). The risks associated with such connectivity are worth worrying about.