The Cold War in the Cold Region: A Return

After a long period of confrontation during the first Cold War, the Arctic became one of the calmest regions in the world for almost 20 years. However, since the second half of the 2000s, it has turned back into a confrontation zone. This process has accelerated in the second half of the 2010s. All the major players—Russia and NATO countries—are stepping up their military activities. Climate change is making High North increasingly attractive for merchant shipping and mining of mineral resources. Reports of new and renovated military bases, numerous large-scale exercises and regular warship deployments are becoming a usual media backdrop in the Arctic, along with news about global warming and another record of shrinking ice area. The Ukrainian crisis has also added to the challenges in the Arctic, becoming the main factor of the Russia-NATO declining relationship. We do not know how far this deterioration may go, but we can say that the High North has ceased to be a region of peaceful cooperation. Both Russia and NATO fear a further increase in the level of military threat in their Arctic doctrines. These fears can turn into a self-fulfilling prophecy, but the traditional Arctic rivalry could be complicated by a new factor. China is beginning to claim the role of the independent player in the Arctic. It can play the role of a joker in the deal between Russia and NATO, where neither side of the 2nd Cold War trusts the other and suspects it.