The EU’s Low-Carbon Policies and Implications for Arctic Energy Projects: The Russian Case

This chapter examines the trilateral ecological diplomacy between the EU, Russia, and China. It shows how the EU’s decarbonization policies have strong effects on Russia’s aspiration to capitalize on its comparative advantages in Arctic hydrocarbons production and, in turn, have accelerated its turn to China. First, the chapter examines Russia’s successful Arctic LNG strategy. Then it delves into the EU’s evolving approaches in decarbonization, and asks what the implications of its climate geopolitics are for a deepening Russia–China partnership. The EU has long prided itself on its leadership in responding to threats to the global climate system. The outlook for Russian LNG sales to Europe is likely to worsen particularly beyond 2030 as the EU’s energy policy becomes heavily focused on decarbonization of energy supply and boosting the share of renewables in the bloc’s energy mix. To move into a next phase of climate security, the EU is now building a so-called green taxonomy, a move that has been met with skepticism by Russia, among others, on the grounds that the EU wants to project its environmental values abroad through trade. The chapter then focuses on Russia and China’s expanded Arctic collaboration, in part resulting from the EU’s environmental stewardship. It argues, however, that cooperation between China and Russia in the Arctic is exclusively economic. Next, it builds a case for the shift in focus through two levels of analysis: one that closely assesses current approaches to hydrocarbon production in the Russian Arctic and one that evaluates the extent of Russia’s commitment to international climate policy. It concludes with a big-picture reflection on how Russia should strive to reconcile delivering decarbonization solutions with projections of growing natural gas use, which—in the short term—may still contribute positively to a broader ecological security agenda, either directly or converted to other fuels such as hydrogen.