Effects of Congestion on Drivers’ Speed Choice: Assessing the Mediating Role of State Aggressiveness Based on Taxi Floating Car Data

Inappropriate cruising speed, such as speeding, is one of the major contributors to the road safety, which increases both the quantitative number and severity of traffic accidents. Previous studies have indicated that traffic congestion is one of the primary causes of drivers’ frustration and aggression, which may lead to inappropriate speed choice. In this study, the large taxi floating car data (FCD) was used to empirically evaluate how traffic congestion-related negative moods, defined as state aggressiveness, affected drivers’ speed choice. The indirect effect of traffic delay on the cruising speed adjustment through the state aggressiveness was assessed through the mediation analysis. Furthermore, the moderated mediation analysis was performed to explore the effect of driver type, value of time, and working duration on the mediation role of state aggressiveness. The results proved that the state aggressiveness was the mediator of the relationship between travel delays and driving speed adjustment, and the mediation role was different across various driver types. As compared to the aggressive drivers, the normal drivers and the steady drivers tended to behave more aggressively after experiencing non-recurrent congestion during the early stage of the trips. When the value of time was high, steady drivers were more likely to adjust their speed choice although the effect was not statistically significant for other driver types. The validation results indicated that the speed model incorporating state aggressiveness could better predict the travel time than the traditional speed model that only considering the specific expected speed distribution. The prediction results for the manifest indicators of state aggressiveness, such as the maximum speed and the speed deviation, also demonstrated a reasonable reflection of the field data.