The Impact of Global COVID-19 Crisis on SDGs Achievement in ASEAN-Countries

The Global COVID-19 Crisis (GCC) has created the worst global economic recession since the great depression. It is natural to expect that many of the development target outlined in Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) to be achieved in 2030 will be affected. The objective of this study is to find to what extent COVID-19 will interrupt the progress of SDGs achievement of ASEAN countries. To do this, first, we estimate elasticity of SDGs indicator with respect to GNI per capita using cross-country linear and non-linear regression analysis. We selected numerous indicators from UNSTAT systematically according to pre-defined robustness criteria and come up with 269 indicators. These elasticities are used to project the SDGs indicators toward 2030 using growth forecast with two alternative scenarios i.e. with COVID-19 and without COVID-19 pandemic. We found that COVID-19 pandemic interrupted almost all of SDGs indicators of ASEAN countries. On average (across countries and indictors), the pandemic will leave SDGs indicator in 2030 to be 2–3% lower than what would have been without COVID-19 which is equivalent to around 1.6 years delay of achievement. These extents of interruption, however, vary by indicators and countries. Philippines is the country where its SDGs indicator is the most severely affected while Vietnam is the least. In terms of goals, Goal 1 (No poverty), Goal 8 (Decent work and economic growth), Goal 9 (Industry, innovation, and infrastructure), Goal 12 (Responsible consumption and production), Goal and 17 (Partnerships to achieve the goal), suffer the most serious interruption from COVID-19 Pandemic. Policy implications are discussed.