Modeling for Prospect of Aman Rice Production in Dhaka Division, Bangladesh

Rice is the dominant food crop of Bangladesh, about 75% of agricultural land is use for production and it contributes 28% of GDP. Aman is one of the main harvest crops and second largest rice crop in the country in respect to the volume of production. The main purpose of this study is to identify the Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model by Box-Jenkin’s approach that could be used to forecast the production of Aman Rice in Dhaka Division Bangladesh. The Secondary data were collected for the year 1972–1973 to 2014–2015 from the Bangladesh Agricultural Research Council (BARC) for the purpose of model identification and forecast up-to the year 2035 of the identified model. Data sets are checked for whether it is stationary or not through graphical method, correlogram and unit root test. Thus Box-Jenkins approach is applied for determination of ARIMA model. The best selected Box-Jenkin’s ARIMA model for forecasting the production of Aman Rice is ARIMA (1,1,1). For residual diagnostics correlogram Q-statistic and histogram and normality test were used. The comparison between the original series and forecasted series shows the same manner which indicates the fitted model behaved statistically well and suitable to forecast the production of Aman Rice in Dhaka Division Bangladesh. We have found that the annual production of Aman Rice in Dhaka Division Bangladesh is slightly increasing.