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Analogy and Exchangeability in Predictive Inferences

In: Probability, Dynamics and Causality

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  • Roberto Festa

Abstract

An important problem in inductive probability theory is the design of exchangeable analogical methods, i.e., of exchangeable inductive methods that take into account certain considerations of analogy by similarity for predictive inferences. Here a precise reformulation of the problem of predictive analogy is given and a new family of exchangeable analogical methods is introduced. Firstly, it is proved that the exchangeable analogical method introduced by Skyrms (1993) does not satisfy the best known general principles of predictive analogy. Secondly, Skyrms’s approach — consisting of the usage of particular hyper-Carnapian methods, i.e., mixtures of Carnapian inductive methods — is adopted in the design of a new family of exchangeable analogical methods. Lastly, it is proved that such methods satisfy an interesting general principle of predictive analogy.

Suggested Citation

  • Roberto Festa, 1997. "Analogy and Exchangeability in Predictive Inferences," Springer Books, in: Domenico Costantini & Maria Carla Galavotti (ed.), Probability, Dynamics and Causality, pages 89-112, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sprchp:978-94-011-5712-4_6
    DOI: 10.1007/978-94-011-5712-4_6
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