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Parameter Sensitivity and the Quality of Model Predictions

In: Predictability and Nonlinear Modelling in Natural Sciences and Economics

Author

Listed:
  • Hans J. Poethke

    (University of Mainz, Institute of Zoology)

  • Detlef Oertel

    (University of Mainz, Institute of Zoology)

  • Alfred Seitz

    (University of Mainz, Institute of Zoology)

Abstract

Summary Using SIM-PEL, a comprehensive model for the pelagic compartment of lake ecosystems, we analyse synergistic toxicant effects in lake ecosystems. We show, that — even for a rather simple model — model predictions may be strongly dependent on the time horizon of the prediction and on the quality of input parameters. For longer time spans, small errors in parameter estimation may lead to qualitatively wrong prediction of toxicant effects. Monte Carlo simulations allow to take errors in parameter estimation into account, but they need rather good estimates of parameter variance.

Suggested Citation

  • Hans J. Poethke & Detlef Oertel & Alfred Seitz, 1994. "Parameter Sensitivity and the Quality of Model Predictions," Springer Books, in: J. Grasman & G. van Straten (ed.), Predictability and Nonlinear Modelling in Natural Sciences and Economics, pages 389-397, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sprchp:978-94-011-0962-8_32
    DOI: 10.1007/978-94-011-0962-8_32
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